13 February 2018

the 2100 scenario

Don't build your home by the sea. If you own one by it, sell it and move inland.
And these are very conservative and cautious predictions based on multicenter data models. It could well be worse and much sooner.

If sea level continues to change at this rate and acceleration, sea-level rise by 2100 (∼65 cm) will be more than double the amount if the rate was constant at 3 mm/y.

Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise
R. S. Nerem, B. D. Beckley, J. T. Fasullo, B. D. Hamlington, D. Masters, G. T. Mitchum
This will not go away. It's only 82 years to 2100.

Also: We made pancakes today, because Shrove Tuesday tradition. With icing sugar and lemon juice.


Ms. Moon said...

At one of the local museums there is a display where you can pull a lever and it shows the difference in water levels in Florida from pre-history (I guess?) to now. I think it's time they make one that will show what Florida is going to look like by 2100.

liv said...

In my next life, I will make sure not to buy a house by the sea.

I think that is my most favorite food in the whole wide world.

JO said...

And it’s not my generation that will truly suffer - it’s my children, and my grandchildren. I’m ashamed of the way we are leaving the world for them.

Elizabeth said...


Colette said...

Terrifying! In Florida the legislature is still dominated by conservatives who are not responding to Miami's appeals for help with this issue.

Maple syrup on pancakes seems to be a U.S. thing? I sometimes put peanut butter on my pancakes and then douse them with maple syrup. A bit déclassé I guess, but SO yummy.

ellen abbott said...

I'm 60 miles from the coast but still on the gulf coast plains. I thought I might end up with waterfront property but the models I've seen say no. the coast will be much closer though.

Steve Reed said...

Ms Moon: The museum probably can't do that because the Repubs in the legislature would cut off government funding!

Colette: They don't care about Miami. Miami is a Democratic city.

We are living in interesting times!

Steve Reed said...

(Actually, I should amend my response to Colette because some Miamians -- particularly the wealthier Cuban-Americans -- vote Republican.)

Anonymous said...

We live two miles from the coast just outside a tsunami zone, only twenty feet above sea level. We know we won't be around to see the rising disasters on their way. Nothing will be done, and then it will be too late.

Sabine said...

Maple syrup is yummy but not produced in Europe (climate conditions I think). And it's expensive.

The icing sugar with lemon juice version is classic Irish.

My mother made pancakes with flat slithers of fresh apple in the batter, stacked 20 big rounds into a tower with plenty of sugar and cinnamon in between and cut slices as from a cake. It would take her over an hour but it was delicious.

Another staple of my mother's was a thick lentil soup with savoury pancakes, rolled up in your free hand to take bites alternating with spoonfuls of soup. She made this only once a year, on the first day in the holiday home by the sea while we were "adjusting" to the climate.

Colette said...

I have heard that more and more younger Cuban-Americans are not following their parents example! We live in hope.

37paddington said...

we have a home by the sea, but i doubt i will see the sea rise over it. my children might, and their children will, if it is still in the family. who knows. your shrove pancakes sound good!

Forsythia said...

Scary to think about! The sea has already carried away houses in North Carolina and New Jersey, and the Chesapeake Bay is gnawing away at a couple of islands that have been inhabited for centuries.